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Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

Updated Jan 6, 2023

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: How Our Bias Can Mislead Us

Have you ever found yourself making connections or finding patterns where there might not actually be any? This tendency is known as the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. In this article, we will explore what the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is, how it can affect our thinking, and why it is important to be aware of this cognitive bias.

Understanding the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy gets its name from the tale of a sharpshooter who fires a series of shots at a barn wall. After shooting, he then draws a bullseye around the tightest cluster of bullet holes and claims to have excellent aim. However, the reality is that he simply cherry-picked the data that supported his desired outcome.

In a similar vein, the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy occurs when we selectively choose or highlight data points or patterns that support our preconceived notions or beliefs, while ignoring or dismissing contradictory evidence. It is a cognitive bias that can lead to flawed reasoning and inaccurate conclusions.

How the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy Affects Our Thinking

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy can influence our thinking in various ways, leading to a distorted perception of reality. Here are a few examples:

Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias often plays a significant role in the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. We tend to seek out information that confirms our existing beliefs or ideas, while disregarding or downplaying evidence that contradicts them. This bias can prevent us from considering alternative perspectives and hinder our ability to make informed decisions.

Cherry-Picking Data

Similar to the sharpshooter selecting specific bullet holes to draw a bullseye, we may cherry-pick data that supports our desired outcome or argument. By selectively choosing information that aligns with our beliefs, we create a skewed representation of reality and fail to consider the bigger picture.

Post Hoc Fallacy

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is often associated with the post hoc fallacy, which is the mistaken belief that if one event precedes another, it must be the cause of it. We may mistakenly attribute a connection or pattern between events simply because they occurred in close proximity, without considering other relevant factors or potential coincidences.

The Importance of Recognizing the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

Being aware of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is crucial for critical thinking and decision-making. By recognizing this cognitive bias, we can strive for a more objective and balanced approach to evaluating information. Here are a few reasons why it is important to recognize this fallacy:

Avoiding Misinterpretation

Recognizing the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy helps us avoid misinterpreting data or patterns and making faulty assumptions based on limited evidence. By considering a broader range of information and being open to alternative viewpoints, we can make more accurate assessments and conclusions.

Enhancing Objectivity

Understanding this fallacy promotes objectivity in our thinking. By actively seeking out diverse perspectives and considering evidence that challenges our beliefs, we can develop a more comprehensive understanding of a given topic or situation.

Strengthening Decision-Making

By avoiding the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, we can make better-informed decisions. By conducting thorough research, weighing evidence, and critically analyzing information, we can mitigate the influence of bias and make choices that are based on a more accurate understanding of reality.


The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy serves as a reminder of how our cognitive biases can lead us astray. By understanding this fallacy, we can strive to be more objective, avoid cherry-picking data, and consider a broader range of information. By recognizing and overcoming this bias, we enhance our critical thinking skills and make more informed decisions. So, let's aim for accuracy rather than drawing bullseyes around the bullet holes that suit our narrative.

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